President Emmanuel Macron fights to save his parliamentary majority and reform agenda

President Emmanuel Macron fights to save his parliamentary majority and reform agenda

by Joseph Anthony
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Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the far-left party La France Insoumise

President Emmanuel Macron could lose his outright majority in Franceā€˜s parliament and the ability to push through his economic reform agenda with a free hand after a strong showing by a new left-wing alliance in the first round of voting.

Macronā€™s centrist alliance and the NUPES coalition led by the hard-left veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon each won 26% of the vote amid record abstentions on Sunday, though it is the June 19 second-round alone that will determine the division of seats.
Elabe projected Macronā€™s Ensemble! alliance would win between 260-295 National Assembly seats ā€“ with the mark for an outright majority set at 289 seats ā€“ and that the left would secure 160-210 seats, a big increase from 2017.
ā€œCome out and vote next Sunday to reject the evil politics of Mr Macron,ā€ Melenchon tweeted after Sundayā€™s vote.
If Macronā€™s centrist alliance loses its outright majority in the run-off round, the president will be forced into making messy pacts with factions of the centre right or centre left who refuse to align with Melenchon on a bill-by-bill basis.
It could also trigger a cabinet reshuffle.
At stake is Macronā€™s ability to pass reforms including a contested pension reform that would see the French work longer, a change the former investment banker says is necessary to ensure long-term order to the public finances.
His opponents on the left are pushing to cut the pension age and launch a big spending drive as surging inflation drives the cost of living higher and erodes wages. Melenchon depicts Macron as an economic liberal who protects the rich and not hard-up households.
Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne defended the ruling partyā€™s performance on Sunday.
ā€œContrary to the words of Mr Melenchon, who really has a problem with reality, we are the political force that has the most candidates in the second round, there are candidates from presidential majority in three-quarters of constituencies, and we will mobilise this week to win a clear and strong majority,ā€ she told reporters in her Calvados constituency.
INVESTOR JITTERS
However, in a sign of investor unease at the prospect of Macron losing full control of the lower house, French banking stocks fell in Monday trading.
Franceā€˜s third largest listed bank Societe Generale SOGN.PA had dropped 3.6% by 0850 GMT, underperforming the CAC40 index which was down 2.1%. Its two larger peers BNP Paribas BNPP.PA and Credit Agricole CAGR.PA lost 2.8% and 3.2% respectively.
ā€œA nervy wait ahead of the second round,ā€ Deutsche Bank wrote in a client briefing note.
No poll shows NUPES winning a ruling majority ā€“ a scenario that would plunge the euro zoneā€™s second largest economy into an unstable period of cohabitation, where the president and prime minister come from different political groups.
Ensemble! won 25.75% of the popular vote while the NUPES bloc secured 25.66%, according to the Interior Ministryā€™s final tally.
Several Melenchon allies accused Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin of manipulating the count by not including some candidates who had publicly said they supported the left-wing alliance within the blocā€™s tally.
The Interior Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Budget Minister Gabriel Attal said: ā€œ(The left) always call into question the figures ā€¦ itā€™s their speciality.ā€
REUTERS

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